I figured it was time I subject you all to a little more math. Unfortunately, I’m no mathematician. Fortunately, I don’t need to be, because someone has done all the hard stuff for me and set this wonderful thing up. Scroll down to the end for the TL;DR read summary.
Swordmaster’s most recent battle got a few comments from folks on the forum wondering, “Hey, could Kingdoms of Men run a MSU list like Swordmasters?” Well, if you’re reading this, you likely know the answer. “Technically yes, but you need to be more talented than this TastyBagel guy. He hasn’t won a game yet.”
The truth hurts, but thank you for your honesty.
For those wanting to one-up me and run a successful MSU-style Kingdoms of Men army, and in particular wanting to emulate Swordmaster's typical list, I figured I'd compare some similar-looking units between the Elves, Twilight Kin and Kingdoms of Men.
I'm not a fan of strict emulation of a list. There are lots of factors as to why an army would take a unit, and it's important to understand the reasoning behind the choices, rather than just copy blindly.
Take, for example, this thread, relating to Twilight Kin MSU. The third post provides a link to the list (sorry for the runaround). For those who haven't clicked the link... the list contains an oddity right from the start with two Troops of Spearmen. If you copied that list over into another army, and just added in two troops of your spear units, you'd do ok, but likely miss the point of those units. In looking at the rest of the army list, their inclusion makes more sense. There are only two options in the army that are cheaper: Lower Abyssals and Gargoyles. Both are odd models, and Kpzelenski might not a) own them, or b) want to run them in this army (for fluff reasons). So what are those Spearmen doing in the list? They are chaff. Look at your army; if you have better options for chaff, use those instead of Spearmen troops.
Alright, enough words! On to the numbers!
First, we’ll be looking at some supporting ranged cavalry units! The first table is the expected damage to a unit with a given defense. (Yes, this includes Elite and Vicious. And yes, they apparently have the same mathematical impact, as explained in the thread. Math!)
Unit (Troop) | De3 | De4 | De5 | De6 |
Silverbreeze Cavalry | 2.7 | 2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
Heralds of Woe | 2.7 | 2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
Scouts & Bows | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
Scouts & Carbines | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
Pretty easy table. The elvish rerolls and extra skill in hitting generate way more wounds per unit than the Kingdom of Men's Scouts with Bows. Our Scouts with Carbines do better (yay Piercing!), but still barely catch up against targets with defense 5 or 6. Alright, we get it. Trope confirmed. But the point ears cost more, right? Like, a lot more. How does that factor in? Let's take the points spent on the unit, and divide it by the expected damage the unit would inflict:
Unit (Troop) | Points | Value De3 | Value De4 | Value De5 | Value De6 |
Silverbreeze Cavalry | 145 | 53.70 | 72.50 | 103.57 | 207.14 |
Heralds of Woe | 145 | 53.70 | 72.50 | 103.57 | 207.14 |
Scouts & Bows | 100 | 62.50 | 83.33 | 125.00 | 250.00 |
Scouts & Carbines | 115 | 60.53 | 71.88 | 95.83 | 143.75 |
So, the elvish units are again identical to each other, and again, trounce the Kingdom of Men's Scouts and human-made bows (and that's not even exploring the other value of the elves, with higher defense themselves, and higher Nerve than the humans). Point for point, the elves are just great. But something interesting happens with the Kingdom of Men Scouts when they stop emulating the elves and reach for a gun. The Piercing value of the Carbines start compensating for the poor skills of the puny bumbling humans. Now, this isn't the best comparison, as the bows have a longer range than the Carbines... but it's something to note and keep in mind. Humans appear to do better when we do our own thing.
Now, onward, to the tables of the infantry shooters!
Unit (Troop) | De3 | De4 | De5 | De6 |
Elf | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
Moving Elf | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.5 |
KoM Bowmen | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
KoM Bowmen (Moving) | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
KoM Crossbowmen | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
KoM Arquebusiers | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
Oddly enough, the three Elvish shooters that I was investigating (Kindred Archers, TK Crossbowmen and TK Shadows) are all armed with bows, and have the same attack stats... so all their numbers match. Rather than inflate the size of the table, I compressed it for this one. Probably as expected, the skills of the average elf go a long way.
Again though, Piercing starts to catch the human up, and it is important to note that an elf on the move is statistically outperformed by both the KoM Crossbowmen and Arquebusiers against all Defense values. Cool. So, what about the points? Let's take a look. This time, the various pointy-eared units are differentiated.
Unit (Troop) | Points | Value De3 | Valeu De4 | Value De5 | Value De6 |
Kindred Archers | 115 | 37.10 | 50.00 | 71.88 | 143.75 |
Kindred Archers (Moving) | 115 | 54.76 | 71.88 | 115.00 | 230.00 |
TK Crossbowmen | 115 | 37.10 | 50.00 | 71.88 | 143.75 |
TK Crossbowmen (Moving) | 115 | 54.76 | 71.88 | 115.00 | 230.00 |
TK Shadows | 130 | 41.94 | 56.52 | 81.25 | 162.50 |
TK Shadows (Moving) | 130 | 61.90 | 81.25 | 130.00 | 260.00 |
KoM Bowmen | 75 | 41.67 | 57.69 | 83.33 | 187.50 |
KoM Bowmen (Moving) | 75 | 83.33 | 107.14 | 187.50 | 375.00 |
KoM Crossbowmen | 85 | 38.64 | 47.22 | 65.38 | 94.44 |
KoM Arquebusiers | 100 | 45.45 | 45.45 | 55.56 | 76.92 |
Yikes! So many numbers...
Let's do a few quick comparisons. TK Shadows had the same stats as the other elves, but cost more points (due to gaining Pathfinder and Vanguard... for 15 points). So, they will have the worst value for the elves. And Kindred Archers and TK Crossbowmen cost the same points... had the same stats, so they are identical. They are the best "Team Pointy" can do.
Most of "Team Pointy" wipes the floor with KoM Bowmen. Stationary TK Shadows are about about good as stationary KoM Bowmen, though the Shadows quickly surpass them if both are on the move.
What about KoM Crossbowmen and KoM Arquebusiers? Well, this is where stuff gets fun. From the start at De3, Crossbowmen points efficiency surpasses moving elves, and are pretty comparable to stationary elves. From De4 and up, the Crossbowmen are more points efficient across the board. The Arquebusiers aren't a great buy against De3, since you're paying for two Piercing and only need one... but from De4 and up they are more points efficient than the elves too, and even edge out their Crossbow-toting brothers. More Piercing is apparently great.
That said, there are some caveats to this all this math and how it relates to these armies.
The first is that these numbers are only dealing with efficiency with outbound damage. we're ignoring the units own Defense and Nerve values. Like it or not, even if KoM can deal out more efficient damage per point in some cases, the elves are better on defense.
The second is that internal balance in each army is actually pretty good. A more expensive unit in a given army probably has a cheaper alternative... but also lacks some stats boosts or rules. That's how it goes in this game. Some units are arguably better than others, but just about everything can find a niche to be worth taking. It usually comes down points available or to player preference.
That said, there are some caveats to this all this math and how it relates to these armies.
The first is that these numbers are only dealing with efficiency with outbound damage. we're ignoring the units own Defense and Nerve values. Like it or not, even if KoM can deal out more efficient damage per point in some cases, the elves are better on defense.
The second is that internal balance in each army is actually pretty good. A more expensive unit in a given army probably has a cheaper alternative... but also lacks some stats boosts or rules. That's how it goes in this game. Some units are arguably better than others, but just about everything can find a niche to be worth taking. It usually comes down points available or to player preference.
So with those limitations in mind, what can we say about elf and human shooting?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------TL;DR-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Elves have better stats across the board than their human counterparts. However, they are limited to using only their bows. Point for point or unit for unit, the elves statistically outperform their human counterparts when it comes to bows. Even the low points costs of humans doesn't even the playing field. Boo.
So, what should a KoM player do?
In short, learn the lessons that each army plays differently, and to utilize the strengths of your particular army. In this particular case, if a KoM player wants to go toe-to-toe with an Elf player of any kind from afar... bringing some units that have Piercing might be good investments.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------TL;DR-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Elves have better stats across the board than their human counterparts. However, they are limited to using only their bows. Point for point or unit for unit, the elves statistically outperform their human counterparts when it comes to bows. Even the low points costs of humans doesn't even the playing field. Boo.
So, what should a KoM player do?
In short, learn the lessons that each army plays differently, and to utilize the strengths of your particular army. In this particular case, if a KoM player wants to go toe-to-toe with an Elf player of any kind from afar... bringing some units that have Piercing might be good investments.